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Who will be Next Japan Prime Minister after Shinzo Abe ? (Aug Sep 1st, 2020 Update)

Currently, three following members have the most potential to become the Next Japanese Prime Minister after Abe San for now according to Japanese News and other Japanese Politician Opinions.



Left: Yoshihide Suga, Middle: Shigeru Ishiba, Right: Fumio Kishida


Yoshihide Suga San is No 2 in the Abe Administration and he never mentioned in the past that he wanted to be Japan Prime Minister. But things seem to be changing nowadays because there is a possibility of winning that is solicited to run from others.


About Fumio Kishida San, it looks like the Abe Administration wanted him as the Next Prime Minister until last July. But it is as if there was dissatisfaction in the Liberal Democratic Party (自民党) and things are started to change.



Next Schedule (Still Adjusting)


Liberal Democratic Party (自民党) Schedule

Aug 28, 2020, Abe Prime Minister Resignation Announcement

Around Sep 15, 2020, Liberal Democratic Party (自民党) president election

Sep 17, 2020, Final Selection


Democratic Party of Japan (民主党) Schedule

Sep 6 to 12, 2020 Democratic Party New Party President Announcement( 民主党合流新党代表発表会)

Sep 16,2020 Introduction of New Party Policy related Announcement


About the Democratic Party of Japan (民主党), the media is talking about it. As you have seen, the Liberal Democratic Party (自民党) is making schedule by aligning with Democratic Party (民主党) and the Media will be full of people from the Liberal Democratic Party (自民党).


Liberal Democratic Party (自民党) President Election Flow




In the above picture, 788 votes are needed for a normal election(党大会) and only 533 votes are needed for emergency cases(両院議員総会). For an emergency case, the decision will be mainly made by Member of Parliament (国会議員). So for normal election cases, there is a possibility for Shigeru Ishiba San and For emergency case, Yoshihide Suga san has more beneficial.


Major Factions and Which Factions are giving votes to whom?



The top 3 main members' runner factions are as follows.

Shigeru Ishiba faction 19 people, Yoshihide Suga faction 30-40 people, Fumio Kishida

Faction 47 people ( Tarō Kōno San will not be in the election).


Other major factions are the Ni-Kai faction(二階派) 47 people, Aso faction (麻生派) 54 people, Hosoda faction (細田派) - 98 people (People also call Hosoda faction (細田派) as Abe faction too), Takeshita Faction (竹下派)- 54 people.


Based on which other major factions will vote to whom is going to make decisions who will be the next president. According to the current updates, it looks like the Hosoda faction (細田派) - 98 people and Takeshita Faction (竹下派)- 54 people are still in between Yoshihide Suga San and Fumio Kishida San. But it looks like the results are already so clear that Yoshihide Suga San will have the highest potential to be the next Prime Minister. It surprises me a lot because I never thought Yoshihide Suga San wanted to be the next Prime Minister.


The Longest Serve Japan Prime Ministers and relation with the USA


The following table is top 10 Japan Longest Serve Prime Minister

Top 1 ShinZo Abe San and Top 2 Eisaku Sato San are relatives



When you look back the history, the top 5 the longest-serving Japanese Prime Ministers are backing up by America and they all are aligning with America really well. If someone who wants to opposite America will be difficult to be Prime Minister and cannot be longer in position. If someone is aligning really well with America, it will be easy to become Japan Prime Minister and Prime Minister Position is also longer



America backed up Yomiuri Shimbun (読売新聞) and Dentsu Media are also getting prepared as media. If someone wants opposition from the USA, you can stop it by pressing from the mass media.

Conclusion


Like I said in the first blog post “Who can be the next Successor of the Japan Prime Minister after Shinzo Abe Resigns?” There might be no differences no matter who will become Next Japan Prime Minister. If Yoshihide Suga becomes Next Japan Prime Minister, our recent lifestyle such as Corona related activities might not change dramatically until Japan can stand current challenges,is facing are out of control.


Note: I am not Japanese and I wrote this blog by researching and referencing some Japanese political opinion with my current Japanese level and experiences of living in Japan for more than 8 years. If you have different opinions or feedback, please write in comment. I will appreciate it.



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